A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but very few government figures or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate perspectives, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
